Pop or Drop?

Livestock Roundup

August 18, 2019



Cattle Commentary

Last week at this time we knew the board was going to break lower, how hard and how long it would last were the big question marks. We were fairly up-beat near mid-week, but our tune changed as we got through Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. It felt easy to buy the break when the dust settled and we started trading off locked limit, but the lack of buying enthusiasm after a quick deep discount is a caution flag for the near term. If it was that easy, the market would have already moved. The fact that it didn't indicates that there may be bigger problems and questions behind the scenes (This is not just for cattle but can also be said for corn and hogs). We think there will be a great opportunity in live cattle going out to February and April but would not be surprised to see things get worse before they get better. Cash trade came in from 105-106 last week, early calls for this week is another 1-2 lower.

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