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E-mini S&P (September)
Yesterdays close:Settled at 2848.50, up 7.75
Fundamentals:U.S benchmarks are sharply higher this morning and make no mistake, strong economic data yesterday offset budding fatigue that could have easily taken the S&P through strong support. Despite gyrating headlines on trade as the week developed, traders are ultimately leaving upbeat with the news from Tuesday; the U.S and China will meet in about two weeks and President Trump is delaying a new round of tariffs until December, a round that would hit consumers. Three fresh anecdotes are also fueling sentiment to finish out the week. Reports that China plans to boost disposable income in order to lift its economy has helped Asia finish a tumultuous week on a positive note. Last night, St. Louis Fed President Bullard broke the Feds silence ahead of Jackson Hole next week in saying a Treasury curve inversion is only a bearish signal if sustained and ongoing. As earnings wind down, NVIDIA beat top and bottom lines and has gained more than 5% premarket, breathing life into the beleaguered chip sector. To round out the sentiment narrative, fresh August Michigan Consumer data is due at 9:00 am CT.
Technicals:The S&P has gained ground out above major three-star resistance at 2866-2866.75 and this neutralizes the near-term weakness. As we discussed in theMidday Market Minuteyesterday, a move below 2840.75 into the afternoon would accelerate selling. This is exactly what happened, but strong major three-star support came to the rescue and rejected sellers with a low of 2825. Price action does face first key resistance at 2881 which has kept a ceiling on things overnight. Today, we have two levels of support that will be crucial for the tape to hold. First, 2866-2866.75 is a pivot until we can close out above there. First key support is our momentum indicator at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Crude Oil (October)
Yesterdays close:Settled at 54.42, down 0.83
Fundamentals:Crude Oil has pared early pre-weekend gains on the heels of an unenthusiastic OPEC Monthly Report. Risk-sentiment was broadly better and equity markets from Asia to the U.S are exemplifying such. However, OPEC reduced its demand growth forecast by 40,000 bpd due to the global slowdown. Additionally, on the heels of data showing Iraq was producing above its ceiling, they noted that 2020 could bring a projected surplus of 200,000 bpd due to this theme becoming more widespread.
Yesterday, the September options contracts expired, and October is now front month. Sometimes this transition can bring additional volatility to a period of consolidation as the previous months options expire. Traders should be ready for added volatility next week.
Technicals:Price action stalled early below resistance at 55.77 and this session high aligns to bring first key resistance. Todays pivot at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterdays close:Settled at 1531.2, up 3.4
Fundamentals:Gold has battled extremely well given a strong wave of U.S data early yesterday morning and broadly better risk-sentiment today. The Dollar Index has gained nearly 1% this week but this is being offset by a new record low yield in the 30-year Bond as it traded below 2% for the first time. A softer 30-year Bond price today is not favorable though. Gold is trading off its overnight high as it is showing some minor signs of exhaustion and that is ok after such a magnificent run. In our minds, we are watching Michigan Consumer data very closely at 9:00 am CT, stronger data coupled with a good finish to the week in equities will likely weigh on Gold and what matter most from there is whether the metal holds a constructive technical landscape.
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