Softs Report 08/16/19

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed little changed and held well considering the weakness in world economic markets and the increasing fears of a global recession. Support came from a very strong weekly export sales report and continued dry weather in the Texas Panhandle. The weather has been considered generally good for Cotton production in the US, but conditions have been stressful in Texas. It has been warm but there have been showers to support good development in most areas. The main exception has been in the Texas Panhandle where it remains hot and dry. Dryland crops in the region need rain. Conditions in the Delta and Southeast have been strong and have improved over the last few weeks. Crop development remains on about an average pace and bolls should start to form soon. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see scattered showers today, then drier weather. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 54.98 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 23,732 bales, from 23,820 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5900, 5750, and 5720 December, with resistance of 6010, 6170, and 6290 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Aug 15
As of Aug 9. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 19 26,036 26,911 -875 39,963 40,437 -474
Mar 20 24,424 25,013 -589 3,454 3,582 -128
May 20 10,460 9,880 580 564 564 0
Jul 20 13,002 14,259 -1,257 834 1,367 -533
Dec 20 10,121 8,869 1,252 15,716 15,164 552
Mar 21 3,463 3,434 29 574 574 0
May 21 1,369 1,370 -1 0 0 0
Jul 21 2,198 2,201 -3 0 0 0
Dec 21 0 0 0 507 441 66
Total 91,073 91,937 -864 61,612 62,129 -517
Open Change
Int
Jul 19 0 0 0
Oct 19 269 249 20
Dec 19 141,927 139,992 1,935
Mar 20 41,291 37,268 4,023
May 20 6,745 5,147 1,598
Jul 20 7,021 5,215 1,806
Dec 20 14,282 13,452 830
Mar 21 518 379 139
May 21 113 80 33
Jul 21 232 163 69
Dec 21 2 0 2
Total 212,400 201,945 10,455

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower as the growing conditions in Florida remain great. Nothing is really showing in the Atlantic at this time but the most active part of the hurricane season is coming. The weather in Florida remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have greatly reduced irrigation needs. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. Inventories in Florida are still 15% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers starting this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 92.00 September. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, with resistance at 101.00, 103.00, and 104.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures closed little changed in New York and higher in London on follow through buying tied to the flooding from Vietnam. The Brazil harvest is almost over and is starting to become available so the country should be able to keep up a strong export pace for at least the next few months. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. There are forecasts for some showers in Coffee areas this week and there are worries about premature flowering. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and flooding is being reported in some areas. Sources in the central highlands suggest that a significant part of the crop in the region has been affected by the floods. Central America has Coffee on offer but bid prices from buyers have been very low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.366 million bags. GCA stocks are now 7.099 million bags, from 6.820 million bags last month. The ICO daily average price is now 96.69 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures through Thursday, then near to below normal. Vietnam will see scattered and mostly light showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 94.00 and 87.00 September. Support is at 93.00, 91.00, and 90.00 September, and resistance is at 97.00, 99.00 and 100.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1290, 1260, and 1250 September, and resistance is at 1340, 1380, and 1400 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower and remains in a trading range. The price action in general is weak and trends could turn down on the charts in the short-term. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting much better monsoon rains after a very slow start to the season. There had been concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt, but these concerns are fading. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal starting on Thursday.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1220 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 310.00, and 307.00 October, and resistance is at 322.00, 328.00, and 331.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower as the market continues to anticipate strong production and worries about demand potential. Price trends in both markets remain down. Some showers are reported in West Africa now and trees are reported to be in improved condition. Ideas are that the next crop will be good as the rest of West Africa also is reporting mostly good conditions. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. Traders worry about the world economic health, and especially the health of the EU economy. The EU eats so much chocolate and buys so much Cocoa that any blip in demand would have a bigger effect on prices.
Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.124 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2060 September, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2260 September. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1600 September, with resistance at 1700, 1730, and 17850 September.

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